As a fantasy baseball team owner in a head-to-head league, there are times where I become my own worst enemy by overthinking about match-ups.
Case in point: I moved Domonic Brown out of my starting outfield, plopped Adrian Gonzalez into my outfield to keep Brandon Belt in my lineup at first base and held out Giancarlo Stanton just because I figured, "Why would anyone pitch to Giancarlo Stanton?"
Well apparently, the St. Louis Cardinals decided to pitch to Stanton tonight, and Stanton delivered two doubles, a single and two RBI -- all of which helped the Miami Marlins win 5-4, but didn't do squat for my fantasy baseball team. Meanwhile, Belt and Gonzalez each went 0-for-4 at the plate. For the night, my team batted a whopping .207.
The thing is, I thought too much about the match-ups and not enough about the players and their talent. Stanton may be stuck on the worst team in baseball, but he is still Giancarlo Stanton. When he's feeling good at the plate, there are few players who are more dangerous than him. He might not drive in a lot of runs because the players ahead of him in the lineup are struggling to reach base on a regular basis, but he can still hit well. As for Belt, he's been OK (.251 average, seven home runs, 29 RBI, 28 runs scored) but he's probably not worth starting on a regular basis.
So, I've learned a lesson. When it comes to fantasy baseball, you don't overthink your match-ups. Just keep the guys in the lineup who are hitting well, and remove the ones who aren't. Look at the player's stats over the past week and past 14 days. If they aren't delivering the way they should and you have a viable alternative, use the alternative then. Use a little more leeway for a high-caliber player (i.e. Stanton, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen, Mike Trout) if he's struggling, but let the stats dictate your decisions -- not the match-ups.
As for Stanton, he goes back in my lineup tomorrow. Belt will get the night off.
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