Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Buy, sell or stay: Toronto Blue Jays

I'm finishing up the American League East today with an examination of the last-place Toronto Blue Jays, who are slowly falling out of playoff contention after investing heavily in veteran talent during the off-season. As you will see, injuries have a lot to do with Toronto's 43-46 record.

Strength: Run production. The Blue Jays are 10th in the majors in runs scored (405) thanks to a lineup that boasts five players with double-digit home run totals -- Edwin Encarnacion (23), Jose Bautista (20), Colby Rasmus (16), J.P. Arencibia (15) and Adam Lind (11). And with leadoff hitter Jose Reyes rounding back into form following a two month-long absence due to injury, the Jays offense should be able to generate more runs.

Weakness: Starting pitching. This has a lot to do with injuries, as both J.A. Happ and Brandon Morrow are still recovering from their maladies. Happ has to overcome being drilled in the head by a line drive May 7 in Tampa Bay, while Morrow is battling back from a strained right forearm. This is on top of Josh Johnson missing the month of May due to a triceps strain. Meanwhile, 2012 NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey (8-9, 4.77 ERA) still hasn't found the consistency he showed with the New York Mets over the last three years. This explains why Toronto ranks 29th in the majors in quality starts (36).

Buy, sell or stay the course? Toronto can't sell off its talent now -- not after trading away a good chunk of its farm system to acquire Reyes, Johnson, Dickey, Emilio Bonafacio and Mark Buehrle. At the same time, there really is no justification for making any more purchases if the Jays have little hope of making a run at the AL East title or a wild card spot. The best thing for Toronto to do is stay the course, write off this season as a snake-bit campaign and see what moves it can make during this off-season to bolster its roster.

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